Technical Scan — 2026-04-29
Table of Contents
Data retrieved: 2026-04-29 — price reference table from fetch-prices.py (Phase 0 source of truth). Free sources carry 15-20 min delay.
Tickers analyzed: 37 total (10 full analysis / 3 momentum leader web lookups / 24 screened with computed scores)
Summary Table
| Ticker | Price | Score | RSI | Short% | Pattern | R:R | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKLR | $6.34 | 14/21 | 40 | 14.2% | Near 52w low base | 11:1 | Strong |
| ONDS | $10.48 | 12/21 | 65 | 34.3% | Post-merger consolidation | 13:1 | Watch |
| NFLX | $92.27 | 10/21 | 37 | 2.0% | Post-earnings oversold | 0.9:1 | Watch |
| BTU | $26.90 | 10/21 | 38 | 9.0% | Below 50MA basing | 0.1:1 | Watch |
| KTOS | $61.66 | 10/21 | 35 | 5.0% | Below both MAs | 0.7:1 | Watch |
| NVCR | $12.12 | 10/21 | 53 | 6.0% | At MA cluster | 0.3:1 | Watch |
| HIMS | $27.91 | 9/21 | 45 | 8.0% | Below 200MA basing | — | Weak |
| HOVR | $1.99 | 9/21 | 47 | 4.5% | Near 200MA test | 9:1 | Weak |
| INFQ | $12.62 | 9/21 | 50 | 1.4% | At MA support | 15:1 | Weak |
| AMKR | $71.36 | 9/21 | 68 | 3.0% | Post-earnings breakout | 0.4:1 | ML |
| RVMD | $144.83 | 9/21 | 68 | 4.0% | Post-catalyst flag | 0.3:1 | ML |
| IREN | $44.44 | 8/21 | 55 | 5.0% | Above MAs flag | 12:1 | Weak |
| AMPX | $19.69 | 8/21 | 65 | 5.0% | Extended from base | 0.9:1 | Weak |
| OKLO | $69.09 | 8/21 | 55 | 16.9% | Below 200MA recovery | — | Weak |
| RKLB | $78.59 | 8/21 | 58 | 8.0% | Extended trend | 3.2:1 | Weak |
| MU | $504.29 | 8/21 | 65 | 2.0% | Near ATH momentum | 0.3:1 | ML |
| MP | $61.70 | 8/21 | 48 | 7.0% | Near 200MA test | — | Weak |
| AAOI | $137.26 | 8/21 | 65 | 5.0% | Extreme extension | 1.2:1 | Weak |
| AEHR | $82.43 | 8/21 | 62 | 8.0% | Extreme extension | 0.6:1 | Weak |
| CRDO | $165.92 | 8/21 | 58 | 5.0% | Extended with pullback | 1.2:1 | Weak |
| AAPL | $270.71 | 7/21 | 50 | 0.9% | Testing 50MA support | 1.8:1 | No setup |
| NVDA | $213.17 | 7/21 | 62 | 2.0% | Near ATH flag | 0.1:1 | No setup |
| MSFT | $429.25 | 7/21 | 50 | 0.7% | Below 200MA recovery | 0.7:1 | No setup |
| GOOGL | $349.78 | 7/21 | 58 | 1.5% | Near ATH flag | 0.1:1 | No setup |
| AMZN | $259.70 | 7/21 | 60 | 1.2% | Near ATH flag | 0.1:1 | No setup |
| NVO | $41.17 | 7/21 | 60 | 3.0% | Below 200MA base | — | No setup |
| NBIS | $135.51 | 7/21 | 60 | 3.0% | Extended uptrend | 2.0:1 | No setup |
| TSLA | $376.02 | 7/21 | 45 | 3.5% | Below both MAs | 0.3:1 | No setup |
| NET | $208.50 | 7/21 | 55 | 2.5% | Near MA cluster | 5.4:1 | No setup |
| LEU | $205.59 | 7/21 | 45 | 5.0% | Below 200MA | — | No setup |
| LITE | $791.37 | 7/21 | 62 | 3.0% | Extended trend | 3.6:1 | No setup |
| COHR | $303.97 | 7/21 | 60 | 4.0% | Extended trend | 2.0:1 | No setup |
| TSEM | $193.55 | 7/21 | 62 | 2.0% | Extended uptrend | 1.2:1 | No setup |
| AXTI | $68.71 | 7/21 | 60 | 4.0% | Extreme extension | 1.4:1 | No setup |
| NOVT | $128.98 | 6/21 | 55 | 4.0% | At 50MA test | 14.9:1 | No setup |
| CEVA | $24.84 | 6/21 | 52 | 4.0% | Mid-range base | 1.4:1 | No setup |
| ULBI | $7.03 | 5/21 | 50 | 3.0% | Mid-range base | 5.0:1 | No setup |
Momentum Leaders (Structural Re-Rates)
| Theme | Leader | Price / 200MA | Fresh Catalyst? | Score | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI Memory | MU | 1.86x | Confirmed — Arete PT $852, MATCH Act lobbying, HBM AI demand | 8/21 | Confirmed Leader |
| Advanced Packaging | AMKR | 1.84x | Confirmed — Record Q1 $1.685B +27%, $300M buyback, Needham PT $90 | 9/21 | Confirmed Leader |
| RAS Oncology | RVMD | 1.94x | Confirmed — Phase 3 RASolute 302 OS 13.2 vs 6.7 mo, ASCO pres pending, Evercore PT $200 | 9/21 | Confirmed Leader |
All three meet momentum leader criteria: price >1.3x 200MA, within 10% of 52w high, golden cross confirmed.
Skipped — No Asymmetric Setup AND No Momentum Leader Criteria
Tickers below failed both the quick screen (QS < 3) and momentum leader criteria:
- NVDA — 96.8% of 52w range, RSI ~62, AI momentum priced in at near-ATH; no asymmetric entry
- MSFT — Below 200MA ($469), mid-range 36.6%; recovery thesis but no catalyst urgency
- GOOGL — 98.3% of range; near-ATH; low short interest; no edge
- AMZN — 94.4% of range; AWS strong but priced in
- HIMS — Below 200MA, compounding drug policy risk; RSI 45 mid-range; QS=2
- IREN — Golden cross but 54% of range, mid-RSI; no urgency
- NBIS — Extended 77.5% of range; AI datacenter re-rate priced in
- ULBI — Illiquid (13.9K vol); no data quality; avoid
- AMPX — 85% of range, RSI 65; extended; overbought zone
- OKLO — SI 16.9% is notable but massive insider selling ($364M) offsets; below 200MA; excluded from asymmetric setups
- TSLA — Below both MAs; Musk distraction overhang; RSI 45 no edge
- NET — Mid-range 64%; at MAs but no catalyst urgency
- RKLB — Extended 73.5%; strong trend but entry quality low
- LEU — Below 200MA; uranium consolidation; no near catalyst
- MP — Near 200MA but mid-range 52.8%; sulfuric acid ban May 1 is a watch item
- CEVA — Mid-range 56.4%; no near catalyst; SiPh licensing slow burn
- LITE — SiPh leader but 81% of range; extended trend play belongs with momentum leaders, not asymmetric; does not meet ML criteria (>10% from 52wH)
- COHR — 80% of range, RSI 60; extended photonics; does not meet ML 10% of 52wH test
- AAOI — 2.78x 200MA; extremely extended; exhaustion risk
- TSEM — 81.9% of range; extended SiPh semis
- AEHR — 2.67x 200MA; extremely extended; high exhaustion risk
- CRDO — Extended 72.4%; pulled back from ATH but still high
- AXTI — 3.38x 200MA; most extended name on watchlist; GaAs substrate for SiPh; high exhaustion risk
- NOVT — CEO sold $1.05M Jan; no catalyst; NOVT scored 6/21 (dead-last among screen passers)
- NVO — 13.1% of range (near 52w low) BUT below 200MA with death cross context; guidance cut headwind; no MA score
Detailed Analysis — Tickers Scoring 13+/21
NKLR — Terra Innovatum Global (14/21) — STRONG SETUP
Date: 2026-04-29 | Price: $6.34 | 52w: $3.73 - $21.91 | Mkt Cap: $446M
Score Breakdown
| Factor | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Price Position | 3/3 | 14.4% of 52w range — near the low; value zone |
| RSI | 2/3 | ~40 — approaching oversold; room for bounce |
| Volume | 2/3 | 959.8K vs ~500K typical — elevated but not excessive |
| Short Interest | 1/3 | 14.2% of float — approaching squeeze territory |
| MA Structure | 2/3 | Price above 200MA ($6.11), 50MA ($4.93); golden cross confirmed; NOT within ±5% of either MA |
| Insider/Analyst | 1/3 | No confirmed insider buying; director option grant only |
| Catalyst Proximity | 3/3 | NRC Part 57 microreactor rulemaking advanced Apr 27 (2 days ago); SOLO PIRT completed; NRC Safety Evaluations expected Oct 2026 |
| [VERIFIED -- NRC Part 57 draft rulemaking confirmed (PowerMag, SightLineU3O8, GlobeNewsWire). SOLO PIRT completion confirmed. NRC docketed SOLO topical reports Mar 5 confirmed. Safety Evaluations late 2026 confirmed. Note: this is Part 57 (microreactor-specific), distinct from Part 53 (advanced reactor general).] | ||
| Total | 14/21 | Strong asymmetric setup |
Risk/Reward
- Entry: $6.34
- Stop: $3.73 (52w low, -41%)
- Upside target: $21.91 (52w high, +245%)
- Practical downside: $4.93 (50MA, -22%)
- R:R vs 50MA stop: ($21.91 - $6.34) / ($6.34 - $4.93) = 11:1
Price Structure
- Price is at 14.4% of its 52-week range — one of the most compressed positions in the entire watchlist
- Price is above both MAs (50MA $4.93, 200MA $6.11), forming a golden cross structure
- The stock fell from a 52w high of $21.91 to current levels — a -71% drawdown from peak
- Key support: 50MA at $4.93, then 52w low at $3.73
- Key resistance: $10 round number, then $15, then $21.91
Catalyst Stack
- NRC Part 57 rulemaking (April 27) — The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission advanced its draft microreactor rulemaking framework. SOLO was specifically designed for fleet-scale standardized deployment, which this framework targets.
- SOLO PIRT (Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table) completed — formal NRC licensing milestone achieved
- NRC docketed SOLO topical reports — Safety Evaluations anticipated by October 2026
- 200 non-binding pre-commercial commitments (~$4B potential) — commercial pipeline exists
- FOAK 2027 target — clear deployment roadmap
Risk Flags
- Nasdaq delinquency letter received for 10-K filing delay — elevated governance risk for a micro-cap
- Pre-revenue company — no commercial revenue; thesis is entirely on licensing and deployment timeline
- Micro-cap illiquidity — $446M market cap; position sizing must account for wider spreads
- Regulatory timeline risk — NRC process can be extended; Oct 2026 Safety Evaluations could slip
- Nuclear policy risk — regulatory environment subject to political change
Pattern
Post-peak base formation after massive drawdown from ATH. RSI approaching oversold territory while price holds above both MAs. NRC catalyst stack fresh as of 2 days ago. This is a speculative pre-revenue play; the asymmetry comes from the price compression and catalyst timing, not from earnings power.
Trigger: Price holding above $6.11 (200MA) on volume with NRC news follow-through. A break below $5.50 would be the early invalidation level.
Invalidation: Close below $4.93 (50MA) on elevated volume, or further Nasdaq compliance issues.
Near-Miss Detailed Notes (10-12/21 — Watch Tier)
ONDS — Ondas Inc (12/21)
Price: $10.48 | 52w: $0.73 - $15.28 | SI: 34.3% float
- Key catalyst: $175M merger with defense contractor Mistral completed April 24 (5 days ago). Pro forma backlog now $457M.
- SI note: 34.3% float is extreme but DTC is ~2 days (high daily volume dilutes squeeze). The SI is primarily a positioning tail-risk, not a near-term squeeze setup.
- Score drag: RSI 65 (overbought score = 0); Price Position 0 (67% of range); these drag the score despite the SI and catalyst scores.
- Watch: A pullback toward $8-9 (200MA zone) with SI staying elevated would create a 13+ setup.
NFLX — Netflix (10/21)
Price: $92.27 | 52w: $75.01 - $134.12 | RSI: 37
- Pattern: Post-earnings flush; RSI 37 approaches oversold; $25B buyback authorization backstop.
- Score drag: Only 29% of 52w range (positive), but below 200MA ($104.66) and no golden cross — MA score only 1.
- Catalyst: Sports integration (WWE Raw 2026), ad-tier growth; no binary catalyst <30 days.
- R:R limited — downside target is 200MA ($104.66) which is above current price; realistic upside to 52w high $134 vs downside to $75 = 1.3:1. Not compelling R:R.
NVCR — NovoCure (10/21)
Price: $12.12 | 52w: $9.82 - $20.06 | Earnings: April 30 (TOMORROW)
- Highest-urgency item in the watchlist today. Earnings report tomorrow before market open.
- Catalyst stack: Q1 2026 earnings Apr 30 + PANOVA-4 positive topline + TRIDENT trial Q2 readout pending + FDA PMA for pancreatic cancer Q2 2026.
- Price position: 22.5% of 52w range; approaching value zone.
- Score drag: RSI 53 is neutral (0 score); below 200MA ($12.59) with 50MA at $12.03; tight MA cluster.
- Risk: Earnings binary; position should be sized for a gap move. Average analyst PT $50.07 — but that's 302% from current price, implying market is deeply skeptical.
KTOS — Kratos Defense (10/21)
Price: $61.66 | 52w: $32.85 - $134.00 | RSI: ~35
- Pattern: Deep pullback from $134 high; now at 28.5% of range; below both MAs.
- Defense tailwind: Budget expansion + drone/hypersonic contracts ongoing.
- Score drag: MA score 0 (below both MAs, 50MA $80.62 and 200MA $80.72 — death cross territory); limits score ceiling.
- Watch: If price recovers above $80 (MA cluster), setup improves significantly.
BTU — Peabody Energy (10/21)
Price: $26.90 | 52w: $12.19 - $41.14 | RSI: ~38
- Price is BELOW 50MA ($32.37) but above 200MA ($27.90) by only 3.6% — near-MA test.
- Golden cross confirmed (50MA $32.37 > 200MA $27.90) and price is within a whisker of 200MA = MA score 3.
- Geopolitical: Hormuz crisis (Brent $109) supports thermal coal demand as alternative energy source.
- Score drag: Price position 0 (50.8% of range) and RSI 38 = score 2 only; SI 9% is meaningful but DTC not confirmed.
- Memory flag: Alex's notes flag BTU for possible removal from watchlist after 31 days; score of 10/21 does not change that recommendation — no strong asymmetric entry case.
Momentum Leaders — Full Analysis
MU — Micron Technology (8/21 asymmetric, Confirmed Momentum Leader)
Price: $504.29 | 200MA: $270.90 | 1.86x 200MA | 5.1% from 52w high $531.36
- Fresh catalyst confirmed: Arete Research raised PT from $562 to $852 (Buy); D.A. Davidson street-high PT; TD Cowen raised to $660. MATCH Act lobbying positions Micron against Chinese rivals.
- AI HBM demand is the structural re-rate thesis — not a trade, a secular shift in memory architecture.
- Price ran from $341 (April 2) to $524 (April 27) — a 54% move in 25 days. Volume 44.5M vs 30M typical = elevated accumulation.
- Verdict: CONFIRMED LEADER. Thesis intact, fresh analyst support. Entry at current level requires trend-following conviction, not asymmetric entry. Pullback to $460-480 (50MA territory) would improve R:R.
AMKR — Amkor Technology (9/21 asymmetric, Confirmed Momentum Leader)
Price: $71.36 | 200MA: $38.70 | 1.84x 200MA | 9.9% from 52w high $79.23
- Fresh catalyst confirmed: Record Q1 2026 net sales $1.685B (+27% YoY); EPS $0.33 vs $0.09 YoY; beat consensus; $300M buyback authorized; Needham raised PT to $90.
- Advanced packaging (SiPh, AI chip packaging) is the structural driver — Amkor is a direct SiPh supercycle beneficiary.
- 9.9% from 52w high — momentum intact but nearing resistance zone. Watch for volume confirmation above $79.
- Verdict: CONFIRMED LEADER. Post-earnings catalyst is fresh (April 27). Momentum continuation is high-conviction but position sizing matters near ATH.
RVMD — Revolution Medicines (9/21 asymmetric, Confirmed Momentum Leader)
Price: $144.83 | 200MA: $74.79 | 1.94x 200MA | 7.0% from 52w high $155.70
- Fresh catalyst confirmed: Phase 3 RASolute 302 results (April 13) showed daraxonrasib OS 13.2 vs 6.7 months vs chemo (HR 0.40) — landmark result. Evercore PT raised to $200; $2.23B equity raise at $142.
- ASCO Annual Meeting presentation pending — upcoming conference will maintain narrative momentum.
- Price ran from under $100 to $145 in April — a structural re-rate on a validated clinical outcome.
- Verdict: CONFIRMED LEADER. Post-Phase 3 re-rate with ASCO follow-through catalyst pending. This is a clinical-stage company with a binary-to-de-risked pathway; the re-rate thesis is intact.
Exhaustion Watch
These names show extreme extension that warrants caution on new entries:
| Ticker | x200MA | % from 52wH | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | 3.38x | 23.7% | Extreme extension; GaAs substrate run |
| AAOI | 2.78x | 20.8% | Overbought; photonics run extended |
| AEHR | 2.67x | 19.6% | Very extended; volume declining watch |
| LITE | 2.16x | 17.6% | SiPh leader but extended |
| RVMD | 1.94x | 7.0% | Momentum leader — watch for catalyst exhaustion |
| MU | 1.86x | 5.1% | Momentum leader — near ATH |
| AMKR | 1.84x | 9.9% | Momentum leader — post-earnings |
| TSEM | 1.81x | 15.4% | SiPh extended |
| COHR | 1.74x | 16.7% | Photonics extended |
| AMPX | 1.68x | 13.6% | Energy storage extended |
Scoring Methodology Notes
Deterministic factors (computed from price table):
- Price Position: (price - 52w_low) / (52w_high - 52w_low) — thresholds ≤15%=3, ≤30%=2, ≤50%=1, >50%=0
- MA Structure: ±5% of 50MA or 200MA AND golden cross = 3; above 200MA = 2; below 200MA within 15% = 1; below 200MA >15% = 0
- Volume: ratio to estimated 20d average — >1.5x = 2, 0.8-1.5x = 2, <0.8x = 1 (without confirmed price direction, held at 2 for normal; illiquid names scored 1)
Lookup factors (from web search):
- RSI: <30=3, 30-40=2, 40-50=1, 50-60=0, >60=0
- Short Interest: >20%=3, 15-20%=2, 10-15%=1, 5-10%=1, <5%=0
- Insider/Analyst: cluster buy $500K+=3, $100K+=2, no activity=1, net selling=0
- Catalyst: binary <14d=3, <30d=2, >30d=1, none+overbought=0
Per SKILL.md rule 4: No data found after one search → score 1 (not 0).
Data Quality
- Price source: Phase 0 reference table (fetch-prices.py, 2026-04-29)
- Tickers analyzed: 37 total — 10 full lookup analysis + 3 momentum leader searches + 24 deterministic-only
- Momentum leaders found: 3 (all Confirmed)
- Data gaps: ULBI volume extremely low (13.9K shares) — illiquidity risk noted; ONDS SI data is from prior reporting period (most recent available); NKLR Nasdaq delinquency letter creates governance uncertainty
- RSI source: Mix of GuruFocus, Capital Street FX, HistoricalOptionData, MarketBeat snippets — first numeric value used per methodology
- Note on NVO: Price position score 3 (near 52w low) BUT MA score 0 (below 200MA by 18.4% — beyond the -15% threshold, no golden cross); the high price position score does not compensate for broken MA structure; overall score 7/21
Technical analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell. All data is time-sensitive. Fundamentals and catalysts should be verified independently before action.