← Index

Geopolitical & Macro Intel — 2026-04-20

Table of Contents
  1. Middle East / Iran War (Day 51) -- ACTIVE CONFLICT
  2. US-China Trade & Tariffs
  3. Commodity Supply Disruptions -- CRITICAL
  4. Federal Reserve -- Apr 29 Meeting
  5. EU Regulatory Policy
  6. Kalshi Opportunities

Middle East / Iran War (Day 51) -- ACTIVE CONFLICT

USS Spruance seized Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska on Apr 19. Iran's IRGC re-closed Hormuz to all vessels on Apr 18 after the US refused to lift its naval blockade. WTI surged 7% to ~$89.81, Brent hit $95.42. Iran rejected Pakistan-mediated peace talks, citing "excessive demands" and blockade. Trump sending US negotiators to Islamabad Monday regardless. Developing.

Affected holdings: OKLO (+, energy price tailwinds), IREN (--, energy cost), AMPX/ULBI (+, defense demand), RKLB (+, defense/space premium), TSLA (--, input cost inflation)

Kalshi: "US-Iran nuclear deal before May" — 24% Yes | Vol: $1.2M | Assessed ~8-10%. Sell Yes — 14pp edge.

US-China Trade & Tariffs

50% tariff threat on China (Apr 13) over alleged Iran arms. Effective rate 31.6%, EV components >145%. Section 301 hearings Apr 28. CAPE refund system launches today. Confirmed.

Affected holdings: AAPL/NVDA (--, supply chain), TSLA (--, EV tariffs), AXTI (InP risk), MP (+, reshoring)

Commodity Supply Disruptions -- CRITICAL

Hormuz transit: 3.8 mb/d vs 20 mb/d pre-crisis. Global crude runs -6 mb/d. Inventories -85 mb in March. Methanol, aluminum, sulfur, graphite all disrupted. China HREE export controls persist; MP Materials Texas facility commissioning 2026. Confirmed.

Affected holdings: MP (+, reshoring), AXTI (+, InP expansion), COHR/LITE/AAOI (SiPh supply stress)

Federal Reserve -- Apr 29 Meeting

Held at 3.50-3.75% in March. Median dot: 1 cut in 2026. Oil shock vs labor softening = extended hold likely. Confirmed.

Kalshi: "Fed cut 25bps in April" — 0% Yes | Vol: $4M | No edge.

EU Regulatory Policy

AI Act applies Aug 2. GPSR binding Aug 12. Digital Omnibus package under exploration. Low urgency this week. Confirmed.

Kalshi Opportunities

Event Market Kalshi Assessed Edge Bet
Iran nuclear deal before May KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY 24% Yes ~8% +16pp Sell Yes

WTI >$90.99 on Apr 24 (46% Yes) is near-edge (~55% assessed) but below 10pp threshold. Monitor Monday open.

Sources: